SOCAL, Saudi Arabia, and Bitcoin… If you thought the oil industry had booms…

I meant to note this two days ago but the photo on the top is the signing ceremony on 29 May1933 between SOCALm (Standard Oil Company of California) and Saudi Arabia to manage the Kingdom’s oil concession. Clearly a historic event in the development of the oil industry.

As a contrast… I couldn’t help noticing this story about Bitcoin and it’s energy usage. In Chelan County, renowned for cheap electricity and:

an area famous for apples, wheat and conservative politics [it] has been transformed into a kind of cyber-boomtown, with Bitcoin mining operations that range from large-scale, state-of-the-art warehouses to repurposed cargo containers to backyard sheds. By the end of this year, according to some estimates, the Mid-Columbia Basin could account for as much as 30 percent of the global output of new Bitcoin and large shares of other digital currencies, such as Litecoin and Ethereum.

There is a boom going on:

In a normal year, demand for electric power in Chelan County grows by perhaps 4 megawatts ­­— enough for around 2,250 homes — as new residents arrive and as businesses start or expand. But since January 2017, as Bitcoin enthusiasts bid up the price of the currency, eager miners have requested a staggering 210 megawatts for mines they want to build in Chelan County. That’s nearly as much as the county and its 73,000 residents were already using…

 The scale of some new requests is mind-boggling. Until recently, the largest mines in Chelan County used five megawatts or less. In the past six months, by contrast, miners have requested loads of 50 megawatts and, in several cases, 100 megawatts. By comparison, a fruit warehouse uses around 2.5 megawatts.

However, the acquisition of resources has not gone quite as smoothly:

China electricity.png

I am pretty sure the crypto-miners from China are thinking about crypto-sceptics (like me), from the comfort of their private jet, sure that we are the people who just don’t get it.  In future years maybe someone will dig up a photo of the dam master and the Chinese miner signing a supply agreement… but I have my doubts…

Chinese subsea vessels…

Last month COOEC successfully delivered a high spec DSV and IMR further adding capacity to an already depressed market. The only effect is that companies like who used to charter DSVs and IMR vessels in the region have now lost completely the chance for this work and these vessels will be offered at rock bottom rates when they are quiet domestically.

Given that it is cheaper, and will be for some time to charter vessels rather than own them, one wonders why construction on these vessels was started long after this became clear?

A good article here highlights the scale of the subsidies for Chinese shipbuilders and the effect this has had on the industry:

Chinese shipyards.png

Given the conclusion:

[t]his calculation implies that a frequent assertion that China developed shipbuilding to benefit from low freight rates for its trade seems to be unsubstantiated. Indeed, the benefits of subsidies to shipping are minimal. Perhaps instead, the Chinese government is aspiring to externalities for sectors such as steel and defense, or even national pride …

[t]he results of my study suggest that Chinese subsidies dramatically altered the geography of production and countries’ market shares. Although price (and thus consumer) gains are small in the short run, they may grow in the long run as the operating fleet becomes larger.

It is hard not to see this as a move to ensure China moves up the value chain in the production chain for high spec vessels. Not good news for residual values long term I would suggest.

Friday morning cheer for the bulls… and safe thoughts for those in Houston…

“Give me a one-handed Economist. All my economists say ‘on the one hand…’, then ‘but on the other…”

Harry Truman

 

As I am off on holiday to Spain I thought I would spread some cheer for the weekend…The Bull case for oil was made by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco yesterday looking at oil demand in China and combining it with The Varian Rule (which I hadn’t heard of either):

A simple way to forecast the future is to look at what rich people have today; middle-income people will have something equivalent in 10 years, and poor people will have it in an additional decade.

The economists from the Federal Reserve conclude what every offshore bull hopes for, even if it is in a delightfully non-commital and unspecified in timeframe:

In particular, if both domestic and foreign oil producers are reluctant to invest now in exploration and development, they may be unable to expand quickly to meet a sharp increase in Chinese demand. If global supply cannot expand fast enough, oil prices will have to rise to balance the market, as they did in the early 2000s.

On the other hand DNB came out with this graph this week:

DNB Offshore Spend 2017e

The point about being “unable” to expand is a good one. Even if the price spiked now the supply chain has laid off so many people in the short term all that will happen is there would be an explosion in wage costs not asset utilisation (and therefore day rates) as projects would take time to wind up. For the supply chain there is no easy solution to the current problems apart from slow deleveraging and the occassional exogenous shock maybe?

To all my friends in Houston I hope all is well and you are hunkered down safely. For the record no one obviously wants an increase in demand generated in such a way.

Hornbeck Hurricane map.png

Source: Hornbeck