Bibby Offshore restructuring… End of an era…

Bibby Offshore Holdings Limited announced today it reached a comprehensive agreement on the recapitalisation of its balance sheet with noteholders who hold 80% of the £175 million 7.5% senior secured notes due 15 June 2021 issued by its subsidiary Bibby Offshore Services Plc .
The terms of the recapitalisation will result in the group having a substantially debt-free balance sheet with an equity injection of £50 million to enable it to consolidate and expand its position within the offshore inspection, repairs and maintenance and construction markets. At completion of the transaction, Bibby Line Group Limited (BLG) will transfer its entire ownership in Bibby Offshore to the group’s noteholders.

It is mildly ironic that after the Nor and Bibby bondholders spent so long seeking a resolution to their problems that both solutions were announced within hours of each other. On a first pass I would rather be a Boskalis shareholder than a Bibby bondholder.

Let’s be really clear this was no ordinary refinancing: this was in effect a relatively hostile takeover by the bondholders after the financial situation became untenable. Bibby Line Group exit with 0% having clearly been unable and unwilling to put any money in. After taking out £60m since 2014 they may consider this a good deal, but it will be painful for the Group accounts next year.

Bibby Offshore can keep using the name for another 12 months and the Directors have warranted not to frustrate the handover or pay the December interest payment (amongst other things). As at the close of the last quarter Bibby Offshore had a mere £3.1m cash in the bank, so the last point was academic in a way, but it avoids the need for a disruptive administration process. It seems pretty obvious to outside observers that it took the bondholders to make BLG aware of the gravity of the situation. Smaller companies in Aberdeen supplying goods on credit were taking an enormous risk here.

The restructuring values Bibby Offshore at £115m: basically the outstanding £175m bond (valued at .37) + 50m in new cash. Transaction and other expenses need to be taken from the £50m going in. Therefore for £115m bondholders are now the proud owners of the Bibby Polaris, Bibby Sapphire, a risk share charter on the Bibby Topaz, and all the associated IP, master service agreements, etc of the company that make it a business. This is a company that will now undergo a fundamental operating restructure as the announcement makes clear:

Within the next 7 days, Bibby Offshore will appoint an independent consultant on behalf of the noteholders to support management on the ongoing cash flow management and transition of the business to the new shareholders.

That means a group of restructuring consultants (in all likelihood from Alix Partners or Alvarez and Marsal) who will come in and do a restructuring plan that will be loosely based on zero-based budgeting. This is a brutal process and will aim to significantly reduce the costs so the business is at least cash flow breakeven by June (or they will be through a significant portion of the £50m on current trading levels). Given this hasn’t been the case for well over 2 years now you can imagine the scale of what is about to go on here (even accepting that vessel charters have been part of the issue). I’d imagine Small Pools, Business Excellence, and ex-pat managers in Houston look to be first on the list of costs to be reduced but there is a real question about what the business model is and what position the company will hold in the market that needs to be addressed.

For staff this is still the best outcome even if it provides huge uncertainty in the short-term: with only £3.1m in the bank without this agreement there would have been an administration process begun in the next few days. The revolver expired in the next couple of days and that would have brought the nuclear scenario. This was not a deal made in strength but in effect a shareholder being faced with insolvency having a gun held to their head and told to handover the keys.

The consultants’ budgeting process will highlight the fundamental issue the new owners of the business have: What is the competitive and market position of the business? A high end North Sea contractor trying to compete in the US market which is the most price sensitive in the world? Cut the costs back to a “Bibby lite-2007”, with 80 people in Waterloo Quay, shut all other offices, and trade with 2 x DSVs and Sapphire in lay-up or sold, and you will never recover your £115m. But keep trading as you are with an uncompetitive US and Norwegian office and you have to burn vast amounts of cash to make it through until the market changes. There are no economies of scale or scope through these regions and therefore no need for an expensive corporate staff and administrative overhead.

The fleet strategy will also need to be sorted out. Sapphire is in warm stack and Polaris (1999 build) cannot keep going forever. Both vessels are to old for mortgages and will be equity funded for the rest of their lives and there is a valuation implication in that (i.e. lower).  The Topaz is only on a risk sharing charter and frankly without that vessel it is arguable if there is a “Bibby Offshore” at all.

The Boskalis shareholders got a much newer DSV for $60m (£45m at todays exchange rate) and have chartered another one for a rate I believe that is c. $7.5k per day bareboat. The new Bibby will have to compete with a company with a much lower implied asset cost and breakeven level. Boskalis now has sister ships that they can interchange on projects and tenders and appear to have done this for an implied CapEx of c. $40-45m per vessel. Balance sheet strength prevails during consolidation and this will be no exception.

Bibby Offshore now looks exactly like Harkand before it folded. Harkand had 2 x the Nor vessels in the UK and the Swordfish in Houston for their ex-Veolia acquisition. Oaktree funded Harkand 3 times, and it only broke even a couple of quarters, before finally giving up. In the scheme of operating North Sea class DSVs £50m is not a  lot of money given the direct operating costs and associated infrastructure (tendering, marine, overhead etc). The new shareholders will require a firm constiution and plan to carry through this through for any length of time given that the order book is nearly empty and vessel commitments remain until Q2 2018.

One option maybe to seek higher value services such as well intervention with some talented ex- Helix staff floating around though the barriers to entry are high though and it will require further capex. The Bibby investments in renewables capacity (i.e. the carousel) look prehistoric compared to the DeepOcean and Boskalis fleet. Simply bashing up against three substantially bigger companies offering DSV days doesn’t strike me a great strategy and certainly not a sustainable one.

There is no other reasonable expectation now than for Boskalis and the “new Bibby” to fight it out for utilization by dropping the day rates they bid at (and Technip and Subsea 7 have shown they play this game as well). There is no guarantee the market is big enough for four companies at current activity levels. The “new” Bibby Offshore is a hugely leveraged play (both operationally and financially) on an oil price recovery that will force a declining basin back to higher production levels with small scale developments and higher maintenance requirements. It looks like a big ask at this point, but the team leading this investment have the financial firepower and competence to see this through if they choose; but it will not look even remotely close to the current Bibby Offshore.

Something rare happened today: the entire picture of how this market will look for the next 5 to 7 years was made public with just two announcements. It is going to be a much better market to be an E&P or renewables company in than a contractor for a good while yet.

 

Generational change coming in North Sea DSV market…

I was told DeepOcean has hired Jerry Starling to set up a diving department: this marks the start of the new competitive landscape that looks set to shape up the North Sea saturation diving market. DeepOcean have the perfect competitive position to break into diving with a large backlog of work from windfarms (increasingly at depths that make SAT diving profitable), excellent relations with an IRM customer base, and a very good operations department skilled at running complex vessels like the Maersk Connector. Clients know and like them and diving is just a fill-in service.

But the real significance in economic terms of this is that it signals how the structure of the market no longer provides the profitability it used to. Quite simply a shortage of North Sea class DSVs, and the high fixed cost commitment to either a charter or ownership of one of these vessels, combined with the investment in location specific infrastructure that is expensive, provided a classic “barrier to entry” for North Sea diving that simply didn’t exist anywhere else. Over time these very high margins were noticed by vessel owners, who built new tonnage, and investors (like LDC and Oaktree) who added capacity, meaning even by 2014 margins were declining. Pretenders tried to imitate but either didn’t have the capital (Bluestream with the Toisa Paladin) or infratsructure (Mermaid/ KD Diving/ Mermaid Endurer).

While these very high margins made it sensible for these companies to invest in this business DeepOcean and to a lesser extent Boskalis were working away at the less sexy end of the market in trenching, ROVs, widfarm work under civils contracts. This work looked low margin in comparison but was completely countercyclical.

And then demand crashed and everyone got left with some very expensive vessels and not enough work as the IRM market declined more than people thought and the construction DSVs came down to take maintenance market share. First Harkand folded and now it appears almost certain Bibby Offshore will as well. Both have suffered for the same reason: if you pay c. $100-150m for a North Sea class dive vessel (or take on financial asset exposure to the same amount) you need 250-270 days utilisation to break even at around USD 150-180k per day. Since 2015 there has been nothing like that sort of utilisation, especially for the smaller players.

The market was bid down in 2016/ 2017  by reducing the day rates to effectively cash OpEx only with no return for the vessel. When you have the balance sheet of Subsea 7 and TechnipFMC this is sustainable for a while as effectively the equity portion of your balance sheet adjusts to reflect this. When you are highly leveraged with an undiversified business model, as both Harkand and Bibby Offshore were, that isn’t an option.

The loss is being taken on asset values, eventually DSVs will be mean reverting assets i.e. their value will be derived from the cash flow they generate and this implies a substantial reduction from the book value of some vessels. It is for this reason that I don’t think much has changed for the Nor bondholders: the two DSVs will only generate a minimal number of days work for the foreseeable future, with a high operating cost (including SAT maintenance), and as recent work has shown potentially long transit times. The capital value of such assets isn’t USD 60m and the really interesting thing will be how the next liquidity issue for the bonds is priced?

JS is close to The Contracts Department, who run the Nor vessels, but there has never been a better choice of DSVs. It would be hard to see DeepOcean going for two DSVs in one season so while this is better than nothing for the Nor bondholders it is very hard to see this being the “get out of jail card” they have been looking for. DeepOcean know the market well enough not to overpay for a vessel and it is highly likely they could get a risk based charter from Nor that would be lucky to be even cash flow even in one year. Given that the Atlantis needs serious crane work and a major thruster repair (at least) to get it working there would appear to be no way to avoid another cash call.

But it will be a different story for DeepOcean. They will gain a vessel on an extremely attractive charter and ease themselves into the SAT diving market with an OpEx margin and the vessel risk guaranteed. They will choose from Nor, Vard, Toisa, China Merchants (unlikely I agree), Keppel, and potentially the Topaz in terms of tonnage. DO will then drop a chartered vessel and try for maybe 180 days SAT diving in years 1 and 2, more if they get lucky. But the charter rate to support that, and therefore the capital value of the asset, isn’t USD 110m per vessel, or more for the Vard/ Keppel etc. DeepOcean’s shareholders don’t need to, and aren’t in the business of, helping distressed vessel sellers.

I have made my comments on McDermott and Bosklis before and see no need to repeat myself again. My view is that Boslalis with windfarm work are better placed than MDR to either buy Bibby Offshore or expand organically, as I am not close to McDermott I have no idea how aggressively they will chase this. But there is no doubt with substantial UK dredging, cable lay, and now Gardline Boskalis appear to have the most synergies for any deal.

The Bibby Offshore results were made public this week and I don’t want to say much. This blog was never meant to be anything other than my thoughts on how I had become involved in a credit bubble and other random thoughts.

My own view, as I have said many times before, is that Bibby Offshore will not survive this. The problems involved in a recapitalization are intractable and restructuring is more likely, with a trade sale of certain assets being the most likely outcome, and certainly in the bondholders’ best economic interests should a competitve auction be established. It gives me no pleasure to write this because my time at BOHL was an enormous learning experience and for the most part enjoyable.

I could write a long post but the basic reason is very simple: the company borrowed too much money and the current shareholders simply do not have the financial resources to reverse this course or indeed (just as importantly) the economic rationale to do so. The bondholders lent them too much money, lending bullet repayment on depreciating assets is madness, maybe therein lies a solution, but I doubt it because the MSAs, systems etc have more value to a player growing organically than negotiating a massive writedown and capital injection for the bondholders.

No one in this market puts equity into a business behind £175m of debt and poor cash flow generation. No one will invest a super senior tranche because this isn’t simply a liquidity problem. The entity that has been created and the operating model is inherently uneconomic and the scale of change required too big and too risky for a private equity provider to follow it through in a way that would allow the company to remain independent (in my opinion).

Talk of BOHL lasting until 2018 is simply a fantasy to my mind and doesn’t reflect (again) the seriousness of the situation. Being down to £7.2m at June 30, after having gone through £62m cash in the last 12 months, and allowing a slower run rate loss now vessels have been redelivered/ entered lay-up, implies the cash would be down to about £5-6m now (allowing the 46% DSV utilisation BOHL stated). Someone really needs to explain why the June interest payment was made.

It is impossible to see the OpEx being funded by the RCF, and indeed without serious hope of a new investor, willing to be behind the revolver of £13.1m and agreeing a deal with the bondholders, and no backlog, the RCF offers no solution and only prolongs things.  As soon as those figures were published in SOR every CFO in ABZ told his project staff not to contract with BOHL as the credit risk is simply too great… its like a bank run that becomes self fulfilling.

It must be an extremely worrying time for the staff involved an my heart goes out to them (having been in that position once I can genuinely understand). One thing the Bibby Family/ BLG could do to minimise this is ensure all staff are paid their contractual notice period as under any reasonable financial/ legal assumptions the BOHL simply doesn’t have the money for these to be honoured and the legal structure would prevent them from being treated as preferred creditors.

A North Sea DSV market without Bibby Offshore turns the clock back 15 years. Two large integrated contractors will control the oil and gas construction market and two will dominate the IRM and windfarm market. They will meet in the middle on some jobs. But the overall industry will not return to the supernormal profits of earlier years due to persistent overcapacity of DSV tonnage and lower entry costs. Boskalis and DeepOcean are also likely to bring a degree of civils cost control to the industry that keeps margin depressed: it is a microcosm of the whole industry to my mind.

Boskalis holds all the cards, the importance of windfarms, and restructuring transactions…

I don’t need a watch, the time is now or never.

Lil Wayne

A couple of people have sent me emails asking some questions relating to my Bibby/ Boskalis post and it is easier to answer them once. Obviously this isn’t investment advice (and no one reading this is likely to own the minimum of GB 100k anyway) and is a general indication of events not specific advice. Deals never go the way anyone plans.

Firstly, under UK law a company is insolvent if the assets do not cover the debts or if it cannot pay its debts as they fall due. Should either of these circumstances occur the shareholders have lost control of the company and it is in effect run for the benefit of the creditors and at that point the debtholders can decide whether to call in administrators. Trading while insolvent is a very serious offence for the Directors as it increases creditor losses knowingly.

In Bibby Offshore’s case the only assets of note are the cash, DSVs, and ROVs which combined would come nowhere close to the value of the debts, and in fact Bibby is one of the few companies in the entire offshore industry not to have taken an impairment charge recently on vessel values, so everyone knows the GBP 100m book value is simply not real and the delta is a number like £50m not £2m. The next trading results will make it clear that without an immediate liquidity injection the company is unlikely to make the December interest payment and therefore the Directors now have a very limited window in which to gain funding (this is where is gets complex because a “highly confident” letter from a reputable financial institution may be enough to cover them for a bit but within a strict legal corridor). Given Bibby Offshore is operating at a loss in every geographic region, and has minimal backlog, and seems unable to meaningfully reduce its cost base, it is very unlikely to get this as any investor has to deal with the bondholders who realise they are going to take a substantial write-off here and have to work out how to minimise this loss. To all intents-and-purposes Bibby Offshore Holdings Ltd is controlled by the bondholders not the shareholders now, and it is their interests that are paramount. This can be seen from the BOHL balance sheet in March and the cash balance will be down at least around another £7-10m at best since then (excluding interest costs that have been paid).

BOHL Balance Sheet

BOHL Balance Sheet 20 June 2017

The only refinancing deal Bibby (BLG and BOHL) had been working on was a complex capital injection which required the bondholders to take a loss and work with new capital providers (such as M2 backer Alchemy) who would inject the funds for working capital and agree to pay the bondholders back less than the £175m but more than they would receive in a liquidation scenario. There is simply no realistic way the company could trade out of present situation even if the market recovered. The only conditonal funding from BLG was to back-up the revolver facility that essentially meant they got their money back before bondholders. I imagine this move went down badly with the bondholders.

The other things that seems to have been forgotten here is that the cash being burned is the creditors cash. If the bondholders can turn this spigot off then that money is available for distribution to them, so an option where they stop the cash burn at £15m in the bank is potentially an 8% increase in their recovery, which is meaningful when the only other option is watching it being burned on by a company with poor cost control who are seeking a free option on timing for their shareholder. The bondholders and their bankers will be remarkably unemotional when the first chance comes protect value. It is clear that the BOHL Directors  (and frankly at least one banker involved in the bond issue) failed to understand the seriousness of the 2016 financial result and the Non-Exec Directors at BOHL have performed particularly poorly. Making an interest payment in June, and then running into a liquidity issue now is not a market driven event. The backstop offered by BLG is insignificant in relation to the cash burn rate and reflects the lack of realism about the precarious nature of their situation.

Boskalis have therefore now made a price and pitched it to the “owners” of the company: the bondholders. The offer which I understand is for the bondholders to sell them certain assets of the company,  in-effect the North Sea Bibby Offshore, and leave the legal structure and debts with bondholders. These will be liquidated and generate a minimal recovery but that company will recieve the consideration for the assets it has sold and therefore the bondholders would be paid out of these funds. The price is c. £52m I have been led to believe which equates to the bondholders getting around 30% of the face value (par) of the bond. That means that any competing offer to control the company needs to give the bondholders the certainty of £52m (or whatever the final price agreed on is). Boskalis has wisely laid a marker in the ground, and with nearly €1bn cash on their balance sheet on the last reported financials, there is no doubt they can complete the transaction so the bondholders can bank this number.

It’s pony up with your money time if you are in the race to own these assets (the company will not be sold as the company has a legal obligation to pay the bondholders £175m which only liquidation or a restructuring agreement can extinguish). That sum of money, and the required OpEx for the company to trade through its losses for the next 12 months (say £20m), is so far beyond the capacity of Bibby Line Group to come up with up it might as well be a trillion, barring Sir Michael winning Euromillions twice in one week (and it needs to be next week).

So the only other question the bondholder advisers will be trying to answer now is can they can get a better offer… and who that might come from? I think the only credible bidder would be DeepOcean, as like Boskalis they have North Sea windfarm backlog and a customer base and chartered vessels they could hand back, to de-risk the asset OpEx. But DeepOcean are not as attractive for the bondholders as they are owned by a consortium of PE investors, and raising that sort of capital adds an execution risk to the deal,  one the bankers advising the bondholders will be acutely aware of. The worst case scenario for the bondholders is to lose a deal for accepting a higher price only to find the other side cannot deliver.

I don’t see McDermott (or someone like them) entering the race. Although they are the largest diving contractor in the world now, the North Sea is expensive, and as Bibby have shown perhaps not even profitable for a third player. McDermott want to get the 105 working in the North Sea, but having Boskalis or DeepOcean owning the Bibby DSVs gets them covered on that front without being exposed to the OpEx risk which they have no work in the region to cover so would be starting from scratch. DOF won’t want assets that old and would only be buying backlog of which there isn’t much.

Without any material backlog I don’t see any private equity bidder coming in period. It leaves them 100% exposed to execution risk and market recovery and the very real possibility of losing everything, and to be clear they would have to offer the bondholders something at least as good as £50m cash. Also for the bondholders advisers’ PE companies require due diligence and conditonal closing clauses that they simply don’t want to take execution risk on.

Such competing theories may also be irrelevant: last week (as I noted here) a large buyer of the Bibby bonds sent the price up. If that buyer was Boskalis, and I suspect it is, they may now own enough bonds to dominate (or at least block) the restructuring talks anyway and any competing proposals would be a waste of time. In that case all that is going on here is the protocols required to close this as a deal. In such a scenario Boskalis have probably also reached out to Barclays, who as owner of the revolver just want their money back quickly and will work on any constructive financed proposal to get out rather than risk having to recover their funds from a liquidator. The inability of BLG/BOHL and Barclays to agree a deal that was outlined in the 2016 YE results shows you exactly where Barclays are with this and they are an important stakeholder. It would also highlight this was essentially a hostile offer because the Bibby Town Hall recently, where Sir Michael reassured the staff about their solution, would not have taken place (or would have had a different tone).

So this could happen very quickly because the bondholders now have the certainty of a number and a credible counterparty, and the only internal/competing proposal is not “fully financed” in investment venacular i.e. the BLG shareholders don’t have an investor or an agreement in principal with the bondholders to renounce a proportion of their debts. My broad understanding, and only lawyers can answer these questions definitively, is that the bondholders and Barclays are within their rights now to call in the administrators, or will definitively be able to when results are due in the next few days. The vessels must have been revalued now so there is no place to hide and brokers giving valuations will be aware of their position so will be extremely realistic. The bondholder advisers then will simply seek irrevocable undertakings from the majority of bondholders to back the Boskalis deal, this would save the execution risk of a bondholder vote and this may have already been done, then agree a final deal with Boskalis. The they will call in the administrators with the deal being done at the same time. In legal terms it would all happen in a couple of hours as the major agreements will have been prengotiated and documented and the firm may have a small period in administration while the execution period vests (e.g. formal bondholder vote and Boskalis will seek to novate contracts for work).

This isn’t meant to be a definitive guide as to what will happen but it is a likely scenario and the final version will not be too different. There are numerous specific legal hurdles that must be covered and all insolvencies are different (I am also not a restructuring expert but I have been involved in some so this is broad rather than specific guidance), but I don’t believe the path will be materially different from the one I have outlined unless Boskalis pull out (and they have no reason to here because they are in control of this process).

Boskalis and DeepOcean show how much the market has changed since the oil and gas work dropped and how building up from a low cost windfarm environment has allowed them to take advantage of these opportunities. Both firms have the backlog and work that will allow them to trade the DSVs as peak SAT assets in the North Sea summer, doing diving work and minor project work only and the core maintenance work that Bibby used to do almost exclusively.

Windfarm work in the UK is getting deeper, some of the newer installations are at a depth of 60m which is pure SAT diving work, and work that was is on the margin of SAT or air diving can be carried out by  the Sapphire and Polaris economically given the purchase price. Without that base of windfarm work to spread the OpEx over it is very hard to see how a third major 2 vessel SAT diving player could survive in the UK North Sea because it is clear the Technip and Subsea 7 will protect market share aggressively in a quiet period for oil and gas. DOF Subsea could be expected to bid more aggressively but there is no certainty here as a few staff moves lately make it clear they are backing away a bit.

That will leave Technip and Subsea 7 to the major construction projects and who will hopefully be able to introduce some pricing sanity. Boskalis will do the lower end IRM work that Bibby used to specialise in, keep the cost base at an appropriate level, and yet still support companies like McDermott who need DSV support for SURF work but don’t have commit to running a DSV fleet.. This is a microcosm for how the whole offshore contractting industry will adapt to lower for maybe forever.

As I have said before in The New Offshore all that matters is: liquidity (a derivative of backog), strategy, and execution.

Bibby to Boskalis looks likely…

I have been told by mutliple credible people now that Boskalis are negotiating directly with the Bibby Offshore bondholders to purchase certain assets of the company that would in effect be the refinancing of the company. Booskalis are pitching at around .30 which values Bibby Offshore at c.£52m if true. For that they would get the Sapphire, Polaris, and all intellectual property etc and simply collapse the North Sea business into their current operations. The rest will be left for the creditors who will make a minimal recovery.

Despite the fact the bonds have recently traded at .39 if I was a bondholder I would jump at this offer and be running to find a pen to sign. The only other option is likely to involve them putting money in or a hugely dilutive liquidity issue (like the Nor Offshore one). Instead this is clean and well above any possible recovery they would get in a liquidation event.

The London high-yield market will get a timely reminder that covenant light issues have real risks. The Bibby shareholders took a £39m dividend when the bond was issued and another £20m at the start of 2016, at that stage they must have known the order book was empty,  in the end the company lost £52m at the operating profit level that year. As I have said before at that stage this event, or if it doesn’t happen one similar, became only a matter of time. Bibby Offshore may not have created as much value as Bibby Line Group would have dreamed only a few years ago but they have still done okay out it, whereas bondholders who in effect lent a non-ammortising loan on depreciating assets at the peak of the market, have suffered severe losses. They should be thankful however because a Nor scenario that saw them taking delivery of the Polaris and Sapphire in this market would have seen losses I believe as high as 90-100%.

It will be very interesting to see what happens to the Topaz. I suspect Boskalis don’t need it and will seek a charter that is 100% risk based if at all. I could be wrong on this as they have substantial North Sea operations and windfarm backlog that could use the vessel in a support role. Either way Bibby will revert to a small UK 2 or 3 x North Sea DSV operation supporting the Boskalis operations in Europe with management 100% dominated by Boskalis.

Whether this is in effect a hostile offer or is supported by Bibby Line Group I don’t know. I would struggle to see it being friendly given it would wipe out BLGs equity entirely but it would be the best thing for the company and provide a degree of security or at least certainty for those involved. The bond requires, according to my broad reading, only that interest payments are current and that BOHL has £10m, so a struggle whereby the necessary administration is delayed for a situation that cannot be changed would help no one. Waiting until December for an interest payment that cannot be made (interest accruing at c. £35k per day), or for the cash covenant to be broken allowing the bondholders to act, would be disastrous for their postion. The only thing I am sure of here is that some very expensive lawyers from both sides will be reviewing the bond indenture very carefully.

A competing offer from private equity looks unlikely as they simply do not have the contract coverage Boskalis does to risk some overhead on the vessels. Boskalis can probably release some chartered tonnage and have the DSVs work as ROV vessels on some of their windfarm projects if needed. For Boskalis this is a very sensible acquisition that offers upside only for them really with very minimal risk on running costs.

This will not take long to play out. When the BOHL financials are released it will all become obvious because if the assets have been revalued at anything like market levels it won’t just be a liquidity issue but a solvency one forcing the Directors to protect the creditors, and highlighting how close they company is to running out of actual cash. Resolution by the end of August is my prediction here.