They both can’t be right can they?
I know you can argue high-end jackups will recover etc… it’s just not a booming market if you have this much uncontracted capacity:
And maybe you would prefer less analysis like this from McKinsey:
After seeing rig activity stabilize during the first half of 2017, it resumed a declining trajectory in the second half of the year, hitting record low levels (estimated at about 300 units for jackup rigs and 140 for floaters). This will keep downward pressure on day-rates, with the few rigs that are finding new contracts, doing so at a sharp discount to the rates earned prior to the oil price decline (about 25 percent for jackups and about 75 percent for floaters from 2014 levels). This means lower margins for rig owners, even though they have reduced operating costs by around 70 percent since 2014.
Roll the dice!