With shale a far more flexible marginal production choice than offshore it should take a degree of volatility out of the supply market as production increases warrant more incremental production investment, rather than large proportionate investments in mega-projects (clearly large projects are still going ahead as well, just less of them). The steady rise of the Baker-Hughes rig count this year is proof of this in action.
Rig Count Overview & Summary Count
Source: Baker Hughes Rig Count
While offshore will still be important you can see that unconventional is extremely significant and is part of a strategy for oil companies to diversify there supply with a significant element that is driven by a more flexible, but higher, cost base.
As BP also made clear in their last strategy presentation “Oil demand will continue to grow but at a slower pace”, which should also reduce volatility in prices as the demand side remains stable.